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中国以往劳动年龄人口是正增长,但从2011年开始负增长,绝对数在减少。这一非常重大的转折使得潜在经济增长源泉发生了变化。当前劳动力市场很强劲。即使去年实现了7.7%的增长速度,比过去跌了很多,但我们去年上半年的真实失业率只有5%。考虑到过去测算的中国自然失业率大约4.1%,那周期性失业率不会超过一个百分点,即使有,也比较低。更直接的从官方劳动力市场信息来看,岗位数比求职人数还要多。另外,新增需要就业的人没有离开劳动力市场的人多,也就是每年有更多的人退休,有较少的人在寻找工作。这也是就业市场上非常强劲的原因。
In the past, the working-age population in China was positive, but negative growth started in 2011 with the absolute decrease. This very major turning point has changed the source of potential economic growth. The current labor market is very strong. Even though it achieved 7.7% growth rate last year and dropped a lot from the past, the true unemployment rate in the first half of last year was only 5%. Given the past natural abortion rate of 4.1% in China, the cyclical unemployment rate will not exceed one percent, if any, and will be lower. More directly from the official labor market information, the number of jobs more than the number of job seekers. In addition, the number of new people who need employment is not as high as that of the labor market. That is, more people retire each year and fewer people are looking for work. This is also why the job market is very strong.