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[目的]在分析上海市闸北区2006—2012年5岁以下儿童死因的基础上,运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测闸北区5岁以下儿童死亡率的变化趋势。[方法]对近5年的监测资料进行死因分析,并使用灰色模型(GM)进行拟合、预测死亡率。[结果]闸北区2006—2012年5岁以下儿童死亡以婴儿死亡为主,婴儿死亡以新生儿死亡为主。5年间5岁以下儿童死亡率为3.30‰~4.98‰,2010年略有上升。2006—2012年,新生儿期主要死亡原因为出生窒息,占31.82%。婴儿期主要死亡原因为其他先天异常,占30.43%,出生窒息为第2位,占20.29%。GM拟合效果好,2013年预测死亡率为3.88‰。[结论]先天异常、出生窒息和意外死亡严重威胁闸北区5岁以下儿童的生命,必须加大新生儿筛查力度,普及新生儿意外死亡的宣教,从而有效降低5岁以下儿童死亡率。灰色模型GM(1,1)对5岁以下儿童死亡率的拟合效果好,可以应用于预测。
[Objective] Based on the analysis of the cause of death of children under 5 years of age in Zhabei District, Shanghai from 2006 to 2012, the gray model GM (1,1) was used to predict the trend of mortality of children under 5 years old in Zhabei District. [Methods] The cause of death data of the monitoring data in the recent 5 years were analyzed and the gray model (GM) was used for fitting to predict the mortality rate. [Results] The deaths of children under 5 years of age in Zhabei district were mainly from infant deaths in 2006-2012. The death of infants was dominated by neonatal deaths. In five years, the mortality rate of children under five years old was between 3.30 ‰ and 4.98 ‰, slightly increasing in 2010. In 2006-2012, the main cause of death in neonatal period was birth asphyxia, accounting for 31.82%. The main causes of infant death were other congenital anomalies, accounting for 30.43%, asphyxiation as the second place, accounting for 20.29%. GM good fitting effect, 2013 forecast mortality rate of 3.88 ‰. [Conclusion] Congenital abnormalities, birth asphyxia and accidental death seriously threaten the life of children under 5 in Zhabei District. Neonatal screening must be strengthened to popularize the education of accidental death of neonates so as to effectively reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age. The gray model GM (1,1) has a good fitting effect on the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age and can be applied to the prediction.