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根据渤海海洋资源可持续利用的特征,建立了以社会经济发展、生态环境和资源利用之间相互关系为主线的系统动力学模型,并对2012-2030年渤海海洋资源开发利用状态进行了动态仿真模拟预测,优选出渤海海洋资源可持续利用的优化调控取向。模拟结果显示,渤海海洋资源可持续利用状态主要受技术发展水平、污染物排放量、海洋资源消耗等因素的影响和制约,加大海洋科技投入,走科教兴海之路,是推动渤海海洋经济持续、快速、健康发展的必由之路。本文成果可以为我国渤海海洋资源可持续发展的政策制定提供参考。
According to the characteristics of sustainable utilization of marine resources in the Bohai Sea, a system dynamics model based on the relationship between socio-economic development, ecological environment and resource utilization was established and the dynamic simulation of the exploitation and utilization of marine resources in the Bohai Sea from 2012 to 2030 was carried out In order to optimize the regulation and control of the sustainable use of marine resources in the Bohai Sea, The simulation results show that the sustainable use of marine resources in the Bohai Sea is mainly affected by the level of technological development, pollutant emissions, consumption of marine resources and other factors. Increasing investment in marine science and technology and taking the road of rejuvenating the seas through science and education are the key measures to promote the marine economy Sustained, rapid and healthy development of the only way. The results of this paper can provide reference for policy making of sustainable development of marine resources in the Bohai Sea.