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分析了新疆不同的客运方式对新疆经济的影响。选取1995—2013年相关统计数据,基于协整理论和Granger因果检验方法,并引入变形后的Cobb-Douglas生产函数建立回归模型,采用主成分回归法修正最小二乘回归模型。三种客运方式与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,三种客运方式对经济增长的贡献率大小依次为公路客运、铁路客运、航空客运。受新疆不同发展时期基础设施建设重点的影响,公路客运对经济增长的贡献是时间序列上呈持续快速增长的趋势,铁路客运对经济增长的贡献率呈缓慢增长,航空客运对经济增长的贡献率在近些年有所增长,但增长缓慢。
The influence of different passenger modes in Xinjiang on Xinjiang’s economy is analyzed. Based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2013, the regression model was established based on cointegration theory and Granger causality test, and the deformed Cobb-Douglas production function was introduced. The least squares regression model was modified by principal component regression. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three passenger modes and economic growth. The contribution rates of the three passenger modes to economic growth are, in turn, road passenger transport, railway passenger transport and air passenger transport. Affected by the key infrastructure construction in different development periods in Xinjiang, the contribution of road passenger transport to economic growth is a trend of sustained and rapid growth in time series. The contribution rate of railway passenger transport to economic growth shows a slow growth. The contribution rate of air passenger transport to economic growth In recent years, it has increased but slowly increased.