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本文根据基础养老金和个人账户养老金组成的养老金结构,以确保退休人员退休前后的生活水平大致相当和基金平稳运行为目标,从养老金替代率模型的构建与分析入手,在养老金替代率弹性分析的基础上,依据工资增长率、记账利率、缴费年限等关键因素,按照养老金替代率相对稳定的确定原则,先确定个人账户养老金替代率,利用两个模型中的相同参数,再确定基础养老金替代率,进而确定养老金替代率的理论水平.研究结果与许多国家研究确定的未来养老金替代率基本一致,通过比较发现,我国养老金替代率的现实水平下降过度.“,”According to pension's structure composed of basic pension and per- sonal- account pension, the paper builds pension replacement rate modals respec- tively, and analyzes replacement fate's key factors - wage growth rate, interest rate and fee- contributing year by elasticity- analysis. Aimed at ensuring retirees' approximately quite living standards pre and post the retirement and stationary op- eration of pension fund, the paper determines personal - account pension replace- ment rate firstly using these parameters above, then determines basic pension re- placement rate by the same parameter that two modals refer to, finally determines the theoretical level of pension replacement rate, according to positioning principle of relatively stable pension replacement rate. Through the study we find that the result is similar to the pension replacement rates of other countries' researches, and Chinese realistic pension replacement rate decreases excessively after comparison.