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全球金融危机暴露出“美元体制”下东亚地区面临的诸多困境。其中,东亚经济增长对外部市场的依赖是其面临的重要挑战。未来东亚经济能否持续、稳定增长,在很大程度上取决于该地区内部能否出现替代美国的最终产品市场提供者。从贸易视角考察中国作为东亚市场提供者的现状、潜力及未来前景,通过对东亚新“三角贸易”模式与中国作为区域贸易集聚地作用的分析,可以看出中国正在扮演起东亚地区“市场提供者”的角色;实证研究的结果也表明,中国作为东亚地区市场提供者的地位会随着中国经济增长和人民币升值趋势而进一步增强。但是,现阶段中国在东亚最终产品出口市场中所占的份额与美国的差距明显,尚不具备替代美国成为东亚地区最大的最终产品市场提供者的能力。中国需要在保持经济持续快速稳定增长的前提下,对经济结构和经济增长模式进行调整,积极扩大内需,这必将是一个长期且艰巨的过程。
The global financial crisis exposed many difficulties facing East Asia under the “dollar system.” Among them, the dependence of East Asian economic growth on the external market is an important challenge facing it. Whether the sustainable and steady economic growth of East Asia will depend in the future on the extent to which the emergence of an alternative to the United States as a final product market provider within the region depends. From the perspective of trade, we can see the status quo, potential and future prospects of China as a provider of East Asian markets. By analyzing the new “triangular trade” pattern in East Asia and China’s role as a regional trade hub, we can see that China is playing a leading role in East Asia The result of the empirical study also shows that China’s status as a market provider in East Asia will further increase with the trend of China’s economic growth and the appreciation of the renminbi. However, at this stage, China’s disparity with the United States in the share of the final product export market in East Asia is obviously not yet a substitute for the ability of the United States to become the largest provider of final product markets in East Asia. China needs to adjust its economic structure and economic growth mode and actively expand domestic demand on the premise of maintaining a sustained, rapid and steady economic growth. This will certainly be a long-term and arduous process.