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产业结构低碳转型是实现经济增长和节能减排双赢局面的有效手段。利用2007年区域投入产出表构建多目标投入产出优化模型,模拟不同经济增长率和低碳约束下各行业的经济增长潜力以及产业结构调整潜力,估计与经济增长和节能减排双重目标相适应的最优产业结构。结果显示:各行业在不同的经济增长和低碳约束情境下调整方向保持一致,调整幅度差异明显;产业结构调整潜力取决于碳排放强度和经济贡献的目标导向,在高经济增长目标的前提下,一些碳排放系数较高的产业随着碳强度约束的加强反而呈现出更大的调整潜力。
Low-carbon industrial restructuring is the realization of economic growth and energy-saving emission reduction win-win situation an effective means. Use the 2007 regional input-output table to build a multi-objective input-output optimization model to simulate the economic growth potential of various industries under the constraints of different economic growth rates and low-carbon constraints and the potentials of industrial restructuring. It is estimated that the economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction targets The best industrial structure to adapt. The results show that all industries have the same direction of adjustment in different economic growth and low-carbon constraints, with obvious differences in adjustment range. The potential of industrial restructuring depends on the target orientation of carbon emission intensity and economic contribution. Under the premise of high economic growth target , Some industries with higher carbon emission coefficients show more potential for adjustment with the strengthening of carbon intensity constraints.