论文部分内容阅读
上海的养老发展以“9073”为指引,然而很少有研究探讨“9073”的养老配置是否与老年人对自身未来养老的预估相匹配。本文以上海市11个区共计516名55-65岁独生子女父母为样本,借助潜在类别分析探索其个人预估养老方式的人群分类;并用多项逻辑回归的方法探索每类人群的子女资源和实际的养老准备是否有显著差异。分析发现四类人群:平衡预期(即认为每种养老方式都有些可能);专业照护倾向(即倾向于使用上门保姆,社区服务,以及机构服务);居家照护倾向(即倾向于受配偶兄妹子女等照顾);政府依赖(即寄希望于社区服务及机构养老)。相较于专业照护倾向,居家照护倾向的人群偏年轻,教育偏低,与孩子关系更亲密,认为子女应为父母尽更多的责任,但也同时更担心子女因此受累。而平衡预期人群教育水平偏低,对于自己对照护的需求并不清晰,且对未来的问题采取回避的态度。“9073”的宏观规划与个体的养老方式预期并不匹配;很大一部分老年人对自己未来的养老方式欠缺理性的预估。
The development of pensions in Shanghai is guided by “9073 ”. However, few studies have examined whether the “9073 ” pensions allocation matches the estimates of the elderly on their own future pensions. In this paper, a total of 516 parents of single-child 55-65 years old in 11 districts of Shanghai are used as samples to explore the classification of people with their personal estimated retirement patterns by means of potential category analysis. The children’s resources of each group of people are explored by multiple logistic regression methods Whether there is a significant difference in actual pension preparation. The analysis identified four groups of people: balanced expectations (ie, perceived likelihood of each type of retirement); professional care tendencies (ie, preference for home-based nannies, community services, and institutional services); home care tendencies Etc.). The government relies on (ie, hopes for community service and institutional pension). Compared with professional care tendencies, the home care tendencies tend to be young, have a low level of education, and have a closer relationship with their children. They think that children should do more for their parents, but are also more worried about their children’s involvement. However, the expected education level of the population is low, the demand for self-care is not clear, and the attitude toward future problems is avoided. The macro planning of “9073” does not match with the expectation of individual retirement; a large part of the elderly lack a rational estimate of their future pension.