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过去关于国内房地产市场的研究,主要集中在住宅价格领域,却鲜有关于住宅交易量的分析。已有文献关于量价关系的研究,则得出了正相关、负相关、不相关等多种结论。本文以1999年1月~2011年2月北京市住宅市场的交易量和交易价格为对象,利用格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分析等计量经济方法,对北京市住宅市场的量价关系进行检验。研究结果发现,2004年1月~2011年2月间的北京市住宅价格是交易量的格兰杰因,但从整体来看,北京市住宅市场的交易量和交易价格主要受宏观政策、土地政策、利率政策等政策的影响,二者之间的相关关系并不显著。
Past research on the domestic real estate market, mainly concentrated in the field of housing prices, but few on the analysis of residential transactions. There have been literature on the relationship between volume and price, then reached a number of positive correlation, negative correlation, irrelevance and other conclusions. This article takes the transaction volume and transaction price of Beijing housing market from January 1999 to February 2011 as the object, uses the Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response function and variance analysis to measure the housing market in Beijing The volume relationship between the test. The result shows that the housing price in Beijing from January 2004 to February 2011 is the trading volume of Granger. However, on the whole, the transaction volume and transaction price of the housing market in Beijing are mainly affected by macroeconomic policies, land Policy, interest rate policy and other policies, the correlation between the two is not significant.