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本文通过把经济波动对经济增长的负面影响嵌入经济波动福利损失模型中,系统分析了经济波动通过影响经济增长而间接给居民带来的福利损失,并主要采用1985-2007年省级层面数据实证研究了中国地区经济波动的间接福利损失。研究表明,经济波动使居民承受了不容忽视的间接福利损失,不同地区经济波动的间接福利损失显著不同,东、中、西部三大区域经济波动的间接福利损失依次逐渐递增。为提高居民的福利水平,政府应采取地区差异化的稳定政策有效减缓各地区尤其是西部地区的经济波动幅度。
By embedding the negative influence of economic fluctuation on economic growth into the economic fluctuation welfare loss model, this paper systematically analyzes the welfare losses caused by economic fluctuations indirectly affecting residents by affecting economic growth, and mainly uses empirical data from 1985 to 2007 at the provincial level Studied the indirect welfare losses caused by the economic fluctuations in China. The research shows that the economic fluctuations have caused the residents to bear the indirect welfare loss which can not be neglected. The indirect welfare losses caused by the economic fluctuations in different regions are significantly different. The indirect welfare losses in the three major regions of East, Central and Western China gradually increase. In order to raise the level of residents’ welfare, the government should adopt a policy of regional differences and stability to effectively reduce the economic fluctuations in various regions, especially the western region.