巴西经济在熬过了艰难的2015年之后,并没有在2016年出现明显转机,虽然市场普遍预期巴西经济将在2017年走出衰退泥潭,但其复苏之路并不平坦。201 6年,巴西政局动荡,经济持续衰退,预期可能再次缩水3.4%以上,失业率则将达到创纪录的11.8%。2016年下半年,巴西经济出现一些复苏迹象,因此市场普遍预期2017年巴西经济或将走出衰退,增长在0.6-0.8%之间。但目前复苏步伐低于预期,众多专业机构不断调低2017年的经济增长预期。再加上可能发生的众多“黑天鹅”事件,2017年巴西经济仍充满不确定性。 Brazil’s economy has not seen a clear turnaround in 2016 after it has passed the tough 2015. Although the market is generally expected to get out of recession in 2017, its recovery path is not smooth. In 2016, Brazil’s political turmoil and sustained economic recession are expected to shrink again by more than 3.4% and the unemployment rate to hit a record 11.8%. In the second half of 2016, there is some sign of recovery in the Brazilian economy. Therefore, it is generally expected that the Brazilian economy will be out of recession in 2017, an increase of 0.6-0.8%. However, the pace of recovery is lower than expected and many specialized agencies continue to lower their forecast for economic growth in 2017. Coupled with the many “Black Swan” incidents that may occur, the Brazilian economy is still full of uncertainties in 2017.