论文部分内容阅读
After a decade that recorded a drop in income inequality in Latin America, new data shows the trend has stagnated across the region -- and in some cases, there has even been an increase in the concentration of income.
This analysis is based on the latest revision of household data coming from the Socioeconomic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC) and published by the World Bank.
The regional Gini coefficient (the index most frequently used to measure income inequality) decreased by an average of 0.94 percent per annum, whereas in 2011 it fell by just 0.33 percent, and by a meager 0.02 percent in 2012.
Based on these figures, our UNDP estimates indicate that in six of the 16 countries under review, inequality levels have stagnated between 2010 and 2012.
How to account for such stagnation? With no appreciable fluctuations in social transfers or in pensions for this period, the culprit appears to be the labor market, namely the segment of low-skilled workers in the service sectors – sectors that provided most of the new jobs during the economic boom. As growth in earned income is both a benefit to society (leading to poverty reduction) and a cost for businesses (due to higher unit labor costs), it opens up an interesting political debate at the current crossroads.
One way of tackling inequality stagnation would be structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment: a straightforward way to reduce unit labor costs is liberalizing labor markets and deregulating work benefits. In fact, several countries in the Eurozone are currently following this strategy. From a human development perspective, this remedy is worse than the disease itself, in terms of the long-term social and economic damage.
Another way of tackling this problem would be to strengthen social safety nets, with a specific focus on enhancing returns on education for the labor market. It is more a question of a “race between education and technology” rather than a race to lower labor costs. Few countries will choose this route, as there is little political advantage to be derived from betting on the medium- and long-term potential of such a strategy.
A third way of dealing with inequality stagnation would be to do nothing. This is the most likely scenario for the region, as the reforms needed to address the problem would mobilize significant political and institutional resources. In these instances, countries will try to maintain the pace of poverty reduction through higher economic growth. Looking towards 2020, they will probably come to see that “more of the same” does not usually produce the same results.
In any case, we will see a renewed appetite for structural reforms in the region. And, as in the poem by Robert Frost, when the two roads will diverge in the woods, we will regret not being able to choose both paths.
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ourperspective/ourperspectivearticles/2014/04/04/desigualdad-en-la-encrucijada-.html
最近,拉美和加勒比地区社会经济数据库(SEDLAC)和世界银行共同发布的最新数据显示,收入不平的情况在拉美地区没有得到缓解。地区基尼系数平均每年下降0.94%,而2011年仅下降0.33%,2012年仅为0.02%。联合国开发计划署(UNDP)估计,16个评估范围内的国家,在2010年和2012年收入不平衡水平均无改善。其原因是:服务业低技能工人的劳动力市场在经济繁荣时期涌现出大量新岗位。所得收入增长虽然有利于社会(促进减贫),但由于单位劳动成本增加,公司成本也随之增加。这个境况为政坛开启了一个有趣的辩论题目。解决当前问题有三种办法。一、推行结构性改革,改善经济环境。实现劳动力市场自由化,放宽福利管制;二、加强社会安全网,重点是提高劳动力市场的教育回报。三、静观其变。改革需要动用大量的政治和体制资源,因此短时间内各国仍需通过更高的经济增长保持减贫的速度。
This analysis is based on the latest revision of household data coming from the Socioeconomic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC) and published by the World Bank.
The regional Gini coefficient (the index most frequently used to measure income inequality) decreased by an average of 0.94 percent per annum, whereas in 2011 it fell by just 0.33 percent, and by a meager 0.02 percent in 2012.
Based on these figures, our UNDP estimates indicate that in six of the 16 countries under review, inequality levels have stagnated between 2010 and 2012.
How to account for such stagnation? With no appreciable fluctuations in social transfers or in pensions for this period, the culprit appears to be the labor market, namely the segment of low-skilled workers in the service sectors – sectors that provided most of the new jobs during the economic boom. As growth in earned income is both a benefit to society (leading to poverty reduction) and a cost for businesses (due to higher unit labor costs), it opens up an interesting political debate at the current crossroads.
One way of tackling inequality stagnation would be structural reforms aimed at improving the business environment: a straightforward way to reduce unit labor costs is liberalizing labor markets and deregulating work benefits. In fact, several countries in the Eurozone are currently following this strategy. From a human development perspective, this remedy is worse than the disease itself, in terms of the long-term social and economic damage.
Another way of tackling this problem would be to strengthen social safety nets, with a specific focus on enhancing returns on education for the labor market. It is more a question of a “race between education and technology” rather than a race to lower labor costs. Few countries will choose this route, as there is little political advantage to be derived from betting on the medium- and long-term potential of such a strategy.
A third way of dealing with inequality stagnation would be to do nothing. This is the most likely scenario for the region, as the reforms needed to address the problem would mobilize significant political and institutional resources. In these instances, countries will try to maintain the pace of poverty reduction through higher economic growth. Looking towards 2020, they will probably come to see that “more of the same” does not usually produce the same results.
In any case, we will see a renewed appetite for structural reforms in the region. And, as in the poem by Robert Frost, when the two roads will diverge in the woods, we will regret not being able to choose both paths.
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ourperspective/ourperspectivearticles/2014/04/04/desigualdad-en-la-encrucijada-.html
最近,拉美和加勒比地区社会经济数据库(SEDLAC)和世界银行共同发布的最新数据显示,收入不平的情况在拉美地区没有得到缓解。地区基尼系数平均每年下降0.94%,而2011年仅下降0.33%,2012年仅为0.02%。联合国开发计划署(UNDP)估计,16个评估范围内的国家,在2010年和2012年收入不平衡水平均无改善。其原因是:服务业低技能工人的劳动力市场在经济繁荣时期涌现出大量新岗位。所得收入增长虽然有利于社会(促进减贫),但由于单位劳动成本增加,公司成本也随之增加。这个境况为政坛开启了一个有趣的辩论题目。解决当前问题有三种办法。一、推行结构性改革,改善经济环境。实现劳动力市场自由化,放宽福利管制;二、加强社会安全网,重点是提高劳动力市场的教育回报。三、静观其变。改革需要动用大量的政治和体制资源,因此短时间内各国仍需通过更高的经济增长保持减贫的速度。