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目前,房地产已经进入拐点。这一轮上涨周期是从2003年开始的,整个周期持续了7年左右的时间,下调周期也会比较长,至少3年左右。而进入拐点的主要原因是中国的通货膨胀引起货币政策的收紧,因为房地产市场牛市往往是由宽松货币政策引起的,而熊市也是由于货币政策的反方向引起的。近期看到银行间同业拆借利率比较高,3月期拆借利率还保持在5%。因为通胀压力来势很猛,预计今年和明年的货币政策将是比较紧的。
At present, real estate has entered the inflection point. This round of rising period started in 2003, the entire cycle lasted about seven years, the reduction cycle will be relatively long, at least 3 years or so. The main reason for entering the inflection point is that inflation in China has caused the tightening of monetary policy because the real estate market bull market tends to be caused by loose monetary policy, which is also caused by the opposite direction of monetary policy. I recently saw the interbank offered higher interest rates, 3-month lending rates remained at 5%. Because of inflationary pressures, the monetary policy is expected to be tight this year and next.