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本文首先在Krugman的国际金融乘数模型的基础上引入产品市场,建立了一个既包含国际贸易乘数效应又包含国际金融乘数效应的两国经济依存模型。在该模型中,各国的资产市场与产品市场通过财富效应和收入效应建立互动关系,两国的资产市场之间通过国际金融乘数效应建立互动关系,两国的产品市场之间通过国际贸易乘数效应建立互动关系。然后本文通过该模型分析了当本国资产市场上出现负向需求冲击时的后果。分析结果显示,本国资产市场上出现的负向需求冲击会直接导致本国资产价格下跌,而本国资产价格下跌一方面通过财富效应导致本国产出下降,另一方面通过国际金融乘数效应引发外国的资产价格下跌,本国产出下降又会通过国际贸易乘数效应导致外国产出下降。
This paper first introduces the product market based on Krugman’s international financial multiplier model and establishes a two-nation economic dependence model that includes both the international trade multiplier effect and the international financial multiplier effect. In this model, asset markets and product markets of all countries establish interaction through wealth effect and income effect. The asset markets of the two countries establish an interactive relationship through the international financial multiplier effect. The product markets of the two countries multiply by international trade Number effect to establish an interactive relationship. Then the paper analyzes the consequences of negative demand shocks on the domestic asset market through the model. The analysis shows that the negative impact of demand on the domestic asset market will directly lead to the decline of domestic asset prices, while the fall of domestic asset prices will lead to the decline of domestic output through the wealth effect on the one hand and to the foreign ones through the international financial multiplier effect Declining asset prices, coupled with declining domestic output, will lead to a decline in foreign output through the multiplier effect of international trade.