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升息周期中的投资选择在投资市场上,有这样一个公式:股票(债券)估值水平=∑未来的现金流/现在的利息水平对债券来讲,一个债券发出去以后,年息是3.5%,分子是不动的,只要分母变,债券的估值水平就变。对股票来说,分子收益率受宏观利率的影响,随时会变化,分母也是一个利率水平。在经济发展好的时候,为了防止通货膨胀的出现,都会采取加息的政策,分母变大,整个估值水平变小。对股票来讲,还涉及到每股盈利受到宏观紧缩、资金成本上升的影响,股票的估值水平面临着分子变小、分母变大的情形。所以整个资本市场的投资,不论是股票还是债券,风险都是比较大的。
In the investment market, there is such a formula: Equity (Bond) Valuation Level = Σ Future Cash Flow / Current Interest Rate For bonds, after a bond is issued, the annual interest rate is 3.5 %, The numerator is immobile, as long as the denominator changes, the valuation of the bond changes. For stocks, the rate of return of the numerator is subject to changes in the macroeconomic interest rates and the denominator is also an interest rate level. When the economy is developing well, in order to prevent the emergence of inflation, a policy of rate hike will be adopted. The denominator will become larger and the overall valuation will become smaller. In terms of stocks, it is also related to the impact of macro-tightening and rising capital costs on the earnings per share. The valuation of stocks faces the situation of smaller numerators and larger denominators. Therefore, the entire capital market investment, whether stocks or bonds, the risk is relatively large.