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[目的]分析江苏省昆山市2006~2015年膀胱癌的发病趋势。[方法]2006~2015年膀胱癌发病病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记报告;计算历年膀胱癌粗发病率与年龄标化发病率(中标发病率)。用平均年度变化百分比(APC)及其95%CI评价膀胱癌发病率在年份之间的变化趋势;用时间趋势与自回归模型结合的方法预测未来年份膀胱癌粗发病率。[结果]2006~2015年登记膀胱癌519例,占同期新发恶性肿瘤的2.12%。膀胱癌中标发病率在男女合计(APC=1.6%,95%CI:-0.6%~3.8%)、男性(APC=1.3%,95%CI:-1.2%~3.8%)和女性(APC=5.3%,95%CI:-2.1%~12.7%)无明显趋势变化;但30~69岁人群膀胱癌中标发病率变化趋势在男女合计(APC=4.1%,95%CI:0.5%~7.7%)和女性(APC=9.5%,95%CI:1.0%~18.0%)人群中明显上升。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2016~2020年膀胱癌粗发病率在男性和女性人群中均呈现持续上升趋势。[结论]虽然膀胱癌中标发病率无明显趋势变化,但是膀胱癌发病数逐年增加,因膀胱癌造成的疾病负担逐年增加,特别在30~69岁女性人群中上升趋势最为显著。
[Objective] To analyze the incidence of bladder cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015. [Methods] The incidence of bladder cancer from 2006 to 2015 was from the Kunshan Tumor Registry. The crude incidence and age-standardized incidence of bladder cancer (calculated success rate) were calculated over the years. The average annual percentage change (APC) and its 95% CI were used to evaluate the trend of bladder cancer incidence between years. The combination of time trend and autoregressive model was used to predict the crude incidence of bladder cancer in future years. [Results] 519 cases of bladder cancer were registered from 2006 to 2015, accounting for 2.12% of new malignant tumors in the same period. The incidence of bladder cancer was the highest in men and women (APC = 1.6%, 95% CI: -0.6% -3.8%), men (APC = 1.3%, 95% CI -1.2% -3.8% %, 95% CI: -2.1% ~ 12.7%). However, the prevalence of successful cases of bladder cancer in 30-69 years old population was the same as men and women (APC = 4.1%, 95% CI: 0.5% -7.7% And women (APC = 9.5%, 95% CI: 1.0% ~ 18.0%). Time trend and autoregressive model predict results show that the crude incidence of bladder cancer in 2016 ~ 2020 showed a rising trend in both men and women. [Conclusion] Although the incidence rate of bladder cancer has no obvious change, the incidence of bladder cancer increases year by year. The burden of disease caused by bladder cancer increases year by year, especially in the population aged 30-69 years.