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分析了新维灰色模型预测路面承载能力评价指标的可行性,选取陕西省某条高速公路路段2012年至2016年弯沉检测数据建立传统新维灰色预测模型,引入残差对传统新维灰色预测模型进行改进,运用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵来判断残差预测值在时的符号,建立改进残差新维灰色马尔可夫预测模型,提高了预测精度。并对该路段2017年沥青路面承载能力评价指标进行了预测,并根据预测结果提出养护建议。
The feasibility of predicting the bearing capacity of pavement by using the new dimensional gray model is analyzed. The traditional new dimension gray forecasting model is established by using the deflection detection data from 2012 to 2016 of a highway section in Shaanxi Province. The model is improved. The Markov state transition matrix is used to judge the sign of the residual prediction value. The improved residual gray Markov prediction model is established and the prediction accuracy is improved. The prediction index of bearing capacity of asphalt pavement in 2017 is predicted. Based on the prediction results, suggestions of conservation are put forward.