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公路运输量预测是交通规划的重要内容,是行业主管部门管理的依据,也是项目立项、决策、确定建设规模等最基础的依据之一。人们以往惯用的预测,大多采用的方法有延伸预测法和因果分析法等,预测的结果精确度普遍较低,且因果分析法需要多种经济数据来支撑。本文运用灰色系统理论,建立了甘肃省公路运输量的灰色预测模型GM[1,1],通过比对预测结果,模型具有较好历史拟合度和预测可靠性。
Forecasting the amount of road traffic is an important part of traffic planning and is the basis for the management of the competent departments of the industry. It is also one of the most basic bases for establishing projects, making decisions, and determining the scale of construction. People used to predict the past, most of the methods used are extended prediction and causal analysis method, the prediction accuracy of the results generally low, and causal analysis requires a variety of economic data to support. In this paper, gray system theory is used to establish a gray forecasting model GM [1,1] for road traffic in Gansu Province. By comparing the forecast results, the model has good historical fit and forecasting reliability.