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为研究内河复杂水域船舶通航环境风险演变的规律,促进水上安全预警系统的建立,通过仿真试验、问卷调查与实地测量相结合的方法获取相关数据。运用聚类分析技术对内河复杂水域船舶通航风险影响因子进行分类,确定变量的层次和影响属性。根据结构方程模型(SEM)原理,建立内河复杂水域船舶通航环境风险演变指标体系,其可分为水文特征、库岸特征、航道特征、气象特征、交通管理特征和船舶状况6类。研究结果表明:水文特征对航行安全的影响处于主导地位,气象特征和航道特征的影响较为明显,库岸特征的影响较小。
In order to study the regularity of marine navigation environment risk evolution in complex inland waterways and to promote the establishment of early warning system of waterborne safety, the relevant data are obtained through a combination of simulation tests, questionnaires and field measurements. Cluster analysis techniques are used to classify the influencing factors of navigational risk in inland river complex waters and determine the level and influencing attribute of the variables. According to the principle of structural equation modeling (SEM), the index system of maritime navigation environmental risk evolution in complex inland waterways is established, which can be divided into six categories: hydrological features, bank and bank features, waterway features, meteorological features, traffic management features and ship status. The results show that the hydrological characteristics play a dominant role in the safety of navigation, the meteorological characteristics and the characteristics of the waterway are more obvious, and the influence of reservoir characteristics is smaller.