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目的探讨乘法季节回归求和移动平均模型(ARIMA)在安徽省手足口病发病预测中应用,为手足口病预防控制提供参考。方法根据2009-2014年安徽省手足口病的周发病数据,运用R 3.0.2软件拟合乘法季节性ARIMA模型,并对2015年1~52周发病数进行预测。结果安徽省手足口病预测中最优模型为ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)52模型,残差统计量检验差异无统计学意义(Box-Ljung=0.004,P=0.950),提示残差为白噪声,模型拟合值和实际值平均绝对误差率为11.32%,2015年1~52周预测值和实际值平均绝对误差率为25.10%。结论建立的乘法季节性ARIMA模型能较好地拟合安徽省手足口病变动趋势,模型预测效果较好,可用于安徽省手足口病短期预测。
Objective To investigate the application of the multiply season ARMA model in the prediction of HFMD in Anhui Province, and to provide a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Based on the data of weekly incidence of HFMD in Anhui province from 2009 to 2014, the seasonal ARIMA model of multiplication was fitted by R 3.0.2 software and the number of cases from January to 52 in 2015 was predicted. Results The best model of hand, foot and mouth disease in Anhui Province was ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) 52 model. There was no significant difference in the residual statistic test (Box-Ljung = 0.004, P = 0.950 ), Suggesting that the residual noise is white noise. The average absolute error rate of the model fitting value and the actual value is 11.32%. The average absolute error rate of the predicted value and the actual value from January to May in 2015 is 25.10%. Conclusions The seasonal ARIMA model of multiplication can well fit the trend of HFMD in Anhui Province. The prediction model is better and can be used for the short-term prediction of HFMD in Anhui Province.