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1999年以来我国商品市场已经经历了三轮景气波动,目前正处于第三次景气波动的上升期。通过VAR模型对商品市场先行合成指数、一致合成指数、先行扩散指数以及一致扩散指数的预测,结合各指标的数据特征分析,可以判断2008年上半年我国商品市场仍保持快速发展,这一轮景气波动的波峰在2008年6月左右到来,并于2009年8月左右完成该轮景气周期。
Since 1999, China’s commodity market has undergone three rounds of economic fluctuations and is now in the ascendant period of the third economic turmoil. Through the VAR model of the commodity market leading composite index, the consensus index, the first spread index and consistent diffusion index forecast, combined with the data analysis of the indicators, we can determine the first half of 2008, China’s commodity market is still maintained rapid growth, this round of prosperity Fluctuations in the peak in June 2008 coming around, and in August 2009 to complete the round of the cycle.