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全球金融危机后国际贸易出现了快速萎缩、快速复苏的剧烈波动,已成为世界经济波动的突出现象。本文从全球价值链理论出发,对贸易波动在全球扩散的传导机制及效应进行分析,发现存在订单调整机制、存货调整机制、贸易叠加机制以及合成的“甩鞭”效应。通过选取2005~2013年我国流通企业消费品订单指数和存货指数的月度数据,建立VAR和脉冲响应模型,发现在全球价值链分工背景下,存货调整机制和订单调整机制的共同作用对我国贸易剧烈波动产生了长期显著的影响,且其脉冲结果与现实吻合。因此,建立完善有效的国际贸易价值链传导机制,对世界各国尤其是发展中国家实现互惠互利、共同发展十分必要。
International trade has shrunk rapidly since the global financial crisis. The rapid fluctuation of rapid recovery has become a prominent phenomenon in world economic fluctuations. Based on the theory of global value chain, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism and effect of trade fluctuation in global diffusion and finds that there are order adjustment mechanism, stock adjustment mechanism, trade superposition mechanism and synthetic “whiplash ” effect. By selecting the monthly data of order index and inventory index of consumable goods of the circulation enterprises in our country from 2005 to 2013, we establish VAR and impulse response model. It is found that under the division of labor in the global value chain, the combined effect of inventory adjustment mechanism and order adjustment mechanism has great influence on China’s trade volatility Have a long-term significant impact, and its pulse results and reality. Therefore, establishing a sound and effective conduction mechanism for the value chain of international trade is very necessary to realize the mutual benefits and common development of all countries in the world, especially the developing countries.