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目的建立序贯分析诊断模型的疟疾计量判断方法。方法设立疟疾病例和非疟疾病例的假设检验,选择对疟疾诊断价值大的征候作为鉴别依据,拟定序贯试验类型,确定误诊概率和诊断阈值,根据疟疾病例和非疟疾病例各征候表现的条件概率比建立序贯分析模型诊断指数,通过序贯分析逐一判断和分析,达到诊断阈值,得出结论。结果对疟疾案例判别相符合。若通过调整误诊概率和诊断阈值可对不同疟区、不同传播季节和输入性流动人口进行疟疾病例的诊断以及血检对象的筛选都具有一定的指导作用。结论序贯分析诊断模型具有一定的判别价值,而且方便、快捷。
Objective To establish a malaria measurement and judgment method for sequential analysis of diagnostic models. Methods The hypothesis test of malaria cases and non-malaria cases was established. The syndromes with high diagnostic value for malaria were selected as the identification basis, and the types of sequential tests were drafted. The probability of misdiagnosis and the threshold of diagnosis were determined. According to the conditional probability of each symptom of malaria cases and non-malaria cases Than the establishment of sequential analysis model diagnostic index, one by one through sequential analysis and analysis, to reach the diagnostic threshold, draw conclusions. The results are consistent with malaria case discrimination. If the misdiagnosis probability and diagnosis threshold can be adjusted, the diagnosis of malaria cases and the screening of blood test objects in different malaria areas, different transmission seasons and imported migrants may be instructive. Conclusion Sequential analysis of the diagnostic model has a certain value of discrimination, but also convenient and fast.