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本文利用威布尔概率分析,建立钢轨疲劳失效概率和运量之间的关系,为钢轨疲劳寿命和伤损趋势的预测提供依据。本文提出并讨论了钢轨平均寿命、可靠度寿命及伤损趋势的预测问题,论述了给定通过总质量期间钢轨新生缺陷的预测方法,分析了线路换轨周期、剩余寿命及其可靠度的预测,对使用经过整修的倒边旧轨的伤损预测也作了分析及实例说明。所介绍的理论及方法,对合理使用钢轨及保证行车安全具有重要意义。
In this paper, Weibull probabilistic analysis is used to establish the relationship between the probability of failure and the capacity of rail fatigue failure, and provide the basis for the prediction of the fatigue life and damage tendency of the rail. This paper presents and discusses the prediction of rail life expectancy, reliability life expectancy and damage tendency. It also discusses the prediction method of new rail defects during the given total mass, and analyzes the prediction of track change cycle, remaining life and its reliability , Also made an analysis and an example of the damage prediction of the worn old rail with the refurbishment. The theories and methods introduced are of great significance to the rational use of rails and the guarantee of traffic safety.