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为量化评价雾天环境中高速公路实时交通安全状态,以雾天高速公路交通观测数据为基础,在VISSIM仿真软件中模拟不同雾天环境下高速公路交通流运行状态,并分析雾天能见度、交通流参数与实时交通安全状态之间的关系;将交通冲突数作为高速公路实时交通安全状态的表征指标,运用随机森林算法确定影响实时交通安全状态的主要因素,并利用回归分析方法建立雾天环境中高速公路实时交通冲突数计算模型;选取美国I-43高速公路交通和气象数据,对雾天实时交通安全状态评价方法进行测试和验证。结果表明,模型计算的交通冲突数与交通事故的发生状态一致,能准确反映雾天交通事故发生前后的交通安全状态。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the real-time traffic safety status of expressway in foggy days and based on the FTIR traffic observation data, the traffic flow status of expressway in different foggy days was simulated in VISSIM simulation software. The visibility, Flow parameters and real-time traffic safety status; the number of traffic conflicts as real-time highway traffic safety status indicators, the use of random forest algorithm to determine the real-time traffic safety status of the main factors and the use of regression analysis method to establish a foggy environment Highway traffic real-time traffic conflict calculation model; select the US I-43 expressway traffic and meteorological data to test and verify the real-time traffic safety status evaluation method. The results show that the number of traffic conflicts calculated by the model is consistent with the occurrence of traffic accidents, which can accurately reflect the traffic safety status before and after the foggy traffic accident.