论文部分内容阅读
黄河中游河口镇至龙门区间,是黄河泥沙的主要来源区,该区间水土流失严重,是黄河泥沙问题的症结和关键所在。对此区间的水沙变化进行预测研究,对于研究黄河水沙的变化规律具有重要的意义。利用灰色系统理论方法,采用黄河河龙区间实测径流量和输沙量资料,对黄河河龙区间径流量和输沙量的变化态势作出了量化分析和预测。预测结果较实测值偏大,但是能较为准确的模拟数据系列的波形变化趋势。将灰色预测方法用于河流水沙预测研究是一种新方法的尝试与探索。
The middle reaches of the Yellow River between Hekou and Longmen are the main source areas for sediment of the Yellow River. Severe soil erosion in this area is the crux of the Yellow River sediment problem and the crux of the problem. Prediction of water and sediment changes in this interval is of great significance for studying the variation of water and sediment in the Yellow River. Based on the gray system theory and the measured data of runoff and sediment discharge, a quantitative analysis and prediction of runoff and sediment discharge in the Heilongjiang River were made. The predicted result is larger than the measured value, but the waveform trend of the analog data series can be more accurately simulated. It is a new method to use gray forecasting method to forecast runoff and sediment in rivers.