论文部分内容阅读
By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.
By combining conventional gray correlation analysis, gray clustering method and gray forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of gray time series processing, we develop six different gray earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast an earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast an earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the gray earthquake models. We find that the gray system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We also the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.