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财务困境预测对上市公司正常经营和稳定发展具有重要意义,基于期权定价理论的财务困境预测模型利用资本市场数据,克服了仅依靠财务指标预测的时滞性,通过实证分析被ST公司和非ST公司被带帽前三年的违约距离和对应的违约概率的变化趋势,结果表明该模型能较好的反映公司信用风险变化趋势并能有效预测上市公司的财务困境。
Prediction of financial distress plays an important role in the normal operation and stable development of listed companies. The financial distress forecasting model based on option pricing theory uses capital market data to overcome the time lag predicted by relying on financial indicators. Empirical analysis shows that ST and non-ST The results show that the model can better reflect the changing trend of corporate credit risk and effectively predict the financial distress of listed companies.