论文部分内容阅读
风险态度影响决策者行为,时间压力会通过影响风险寻求或规避的程度来影响决策质量。在应急环境下,研究风险态度及时间压力对于决策的影响可以帮助决策者制定出更好的决策方案。本文运用前景理论,使用DOSPERT量表并加以改编,对风险态度进行测量,研究人们在应急领域和五大常规领域下的风险偏好一致性。引入时间压力变量,研究时间压力对决策者在应急领域及其四个子领域(自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生和社会安全)风险寻求或规避程度的影响。经过实证,本文得到如下结论:第一,风险态度在应急领域和五大常规领域中都是可测的;第二,应急环境下决策者表现为风险规避,时间压力会弱化风险规避的程度,在应急环境的4个领域中,时间压力对自然灾害领域的影响程度最显著;第三,应急领域与五大常规领域的风险态度是不一致的,但在应急环境的4个领域总风险态度是一致的。
Risk attitudes affect decision-maker behavior, and time pressure affects the quality of decision-making by influencing the degree of risk seeking or evasion. In an emergency, studying the influence of risk attitude and time pressure on decision-making can help decision-makers to make better decision-making plans. In this paper, we use the theory of prospect, use DOSPERT scale and adapt it to measure risk attitudes and study the consistency of risk preference in emergency field and five general areas. Time-pressure variables were introduced to study the impact of time pressure on the degree of risk seeking or avoidance by policymakers in the area of emergency and in four of its sub-areas (natural disasters, accidental catastrophes, public health and social security). Empirical evidence shows that: First, risk attitudes are measurable both in the emergency field and in the five general areas. Second, the decision makers in the emergency environment are risk averse, and the time pressure will weaken the degree of risk aversion. Among the four fields of emergency environment, time pressure has the most significant impact on natural disasters. Third, the risk attitude of emergency areas is inconsistent with that of the five common areas, but the overall risk attitude is consistent in the four fields of emergency environment .