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以塔里木河流域为研究对象,通过引入重心模型、优势度指数、Shannon多样性指数、回归模型、灰色关联模型,对典型区域绿洲经济增长与自然资源的关系进行研究,结果表明:1965-1990年,塔里木河流域三次产业结构变化缓慢,1990-2005年,第二产业所占比重迅速上升,绿洲经济重心呈现线性由源流区不断向干流区移动,第二产业重心接近巴州的中心城市库尔勒市;塔里木河流域绿洲正处在工业化前期阶段,其经济增长对矿产资源,尤其是对石油、天然气等资源的依赖程度很高;绿洲农业对水资源的依赖性强,但二者的关联度呈现先降后升的特点,在1971-1980年间达到最小值,1980-2006年间,绿洲农业由水资源和谐型转向水资源消耗型,对水资源的依赖程度不断加深。
Taking Tarim River Basin as the research object, this paper studied the relationship between oasis economic growth and natural resources in typical areas by introducing the model of center of gravity, dominance index, Shannon’s index of diversity, regression model and gray relational model. The results show that from 1965 to 1990 In the Tarim River Basin, the three industrial structures changed slowly. From 1990 to 2005, the proportion of the secondary industry rose rapidly. The center of gravity of the oasis moved linearly from the source area to the main stream area. The center of the second industry was close to the center city of Karel in Bavaria . The oases in Tarim River Basin are in the early stage of industrialization. Their economic growth has high dependence on mineral resources, especially for oil and natural gas. Oasis agriculture is highly dependent on water resources, but the correlation between the two is presented The characteristics of the first decrease and then increase reached the minimum between 1971 and 1980. From 1980 to 2006, the oasis agriculture shifted from the harmonious type of water resources to the consumptive type of water resources, and its dependence on water resources continued to deepen.