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目前国内进行石油地质储量计算的方法主要是容积法 ,该方法计算结果受 6个储量参数控制。Warren概率分析认为 ,容积法储量参数的乘积服从正态分布 ,因此可以通过求取一些特征参数 ,得到储量的概率分布 ,从而进一步得到油藏储量较可靠的期望值。利用上述方法 ,选取、确定储量参数的最大、最可能、最小值 ,计算了柳南地区 9号、12号小层概率为 84 1 的石油地质储量 ,计算结果与容积法储量计算结果基本一致 ,从概率角度肯定了容积法储量计算结果的可靠性
At present, the calculation method of petroleum geological reserves in China is mainly volumetric method. The calculation results of this method are controlled by 6 reserves parameters. According to Warren probability analysis, the product of volumetric volumetric parameters obeys normal distribution, so some characteristic parameters can be obtained to get the probability distribution of reserves, so that the more reliable expectation of reservoir reserves can be obtained. Using the above method, the maximum, the most probable and the minimum of the reserves parameters are selected and the petroleum geological reserves with the probability of 84 1 in the small layers of No. 9 and No. 12 in Liunan area are calculated. The calculation results are basically in accordance with those calculated by the volumetric method. From the perspective of probability, it confirms the reliability of the calculation results of volumetric reserves