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以可再生能源在总能源消费中所占比例作为替代率,讨论了可再生能源替代问题在整体经济系统中的作用.基于经济发展、能源需求、温室气体(GHG)排放、替代率等要素,建立了可再生能源替代的动态系统的数学模型.运用最优控制理论,在期望替代路径给定的条件下,求解再生替代能源产业理论上的最优发展策略.最后,根据实际数据,得出我国实现2020年可再生能源发展规划的动态优化路径,使之在满足经济持续发展对能源需求的前提下,系统要素配置最优、化石能源使用量和GHG排放最少.
Taking the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption as a substitute, the role of renewable energy substitution in the overall economic system is discussed. Based on such factors as economic development, energy demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and replacement rate, The mathematical model of renewable energy alternative dynamic system is established.Using the optimal control theory, the optimal development strategy of regenerative alternative energy industry is solved under the expectation of alternative path.Finally, according to the actual data, China’s dynamic optimization of renewable energy development plan in 2020 will make it possible to allocate the optimal system elements and minimize the use of fossil fuels and GHG emissions under the premise of meeting the energy demand for sustained economic development.