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科学估算气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响,可以更为合理地规划利用地球水资源。针对丹江口水库入库径流的减少问题,分别采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt检验,对1960~2012年间丹江口水库入库径流的年际和年内变化趋势进行了分析,并与同时期汉江上游20个地面观测站的降水、气温的年际和年内演化趋势进行了比较,从气候变化和人类活动影响的两个方面分析了入库径流减少的原因。在此基础上,利用气候弹性模型分别估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响度。结果表明:近年来丹江口入库径流的减少主要受春季和秋季径流减少的影响,在春季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为67%,人类活动为33%;秋季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为88%,人类活动为12%。气候变化是导致丹江口入库径流减少的主要原因。
To scientifically evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff from rivers can make more rational planning and utilization of the earth’s water resources. According to the reduction of runoff in Danjiangkou Reservoir, the Mann-Kendall method and Pettitt test were respectively used to analyze the interannual and annual trend of Danjiangkou reservoir runoff during the period from 1960 to 2012, Observational station precipitation, the temperature of the year and the evolution trend of the year were compared from the climate change and human impact of two aspects of the analysis of the reasons for the reduction of runoff. Based on this, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is separately estimated by the climate elasticity model. The results show that the decrease of runoff in Danjiangkou in recent years is mainly affected by the decrease of runoff in spring and autumn. The contribution of climate change is 67% and the human activity is 33% of the total runoff reduction in spring. The decrease of total runoff in autumn The contribution of climate change is 88% and human activity is 12%. Climate change is the main reason for the decrease of runoff in Danjiangkou.