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不必对中国经济前景太悲观中国经济放缓不足为奇,且这种放缓是可控的,中国经济应该不会硬着陆。中国得以在三年前的全球经济危机后迅速脱身,主要依靠的是大规模的财政刺激政策。2008年11月18日推出的“四万亿刺激计划”中,中央政府承担的金额为11800亿左右,其余大部分通过银行融资,从而导致了地方政府债务激增、固定资产徒增等问题。进而对中国的银行业危机、房地产泡沫、通货膨胀失控等担忧不断涌现,我不认为这些担忧就意味着中国经济会硬着陆。对中国经济硬着陆的担忧有些言过其实了。
It is not surprising that China’s economic slowdown is not too pessimistic about its economic outlook. This slowdown is manageable and the Chinese economy should not land hard. China was able to get out quickly after the global economic crisis three years ago, relying mainly on large-scale fiscal stimulus. In the “4 trillion stimulus package” launched on November 18, 2008, the central government assumed a total amount of about 11.8 trillion yuan and most of the rest financed through banking. This led to the surge in local government debts and the increase in fixed assets . In turn, worries about China’s banking crisis, real estate bubble and inflation out of control continue to emerge. I do not think these concerns mean that the Chinese economy will make a hard landing. Concerns about a hard landing in China are somewhat exaggerated.