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前年下半年以来,我们对湖南市场周期波动的规律性进行了初步探讨。研究表明,我省市场运行中存在着周期波动,1980年以来我省市场已经经历了三次完整的周期波动循环,目前正处在第四次周期波动循环中。如果宏观经济政策没有特殊变化,这一轮市场周期循环波峰出现日期预计在1993年第二季度。 一 我省市场波动周期的历史考察 在宏观经济活动中,由于政府的宏观调控政策、市场变化和经济活动在时间上的不平衡等原因,宏观经济有时表现为景气:经
Since the second half of the previous year, we conducted a preliminary study on the regularity of the cyclical fluctuations in the Hunan market. The research shows that there are periodic fluctuations in the operation of our province’s market. Since 1980, the market of our province has undergone three complete cycles of cyclical fluctuations and is currently in the fourth cycle of cyclical fluctuations. If there are no specific changes in macroeconomic policies, the expected peak of this round of market cycle peaks is expected in the second quarter of 1993. A historical inspection of the market volatility cycle in our province In the macroeconomic activities, the macroeconomy is sometimes manifested as a booming economy in macroeconomic conditions due to the government’s macro-control policies, market changes and imbalances in economic activities over time.