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强震短临前兆信息的判别是个难题。作者把震源区、孕震区及其周围的构造网络作为一个有机联系的“大系统”,对地形变、地下水、水氛、地磁、宏观等大量资料进行了动态统计分析,发现了一些过去尚未认识的新特征。从而提出了一套判别短临信息的动态群体标志,包括:在震源区内、外呼应地出现短临趋势前兆和源外突变前兆等新的前兆类型、前兆时间准同步、临震回复、向震中迁移、不同类型时空叠加等群体特征,以及回复比、范围比、速率比、迁移视速度、时间变异系数、时间震级方程等统计关系。这套标志——群体动态图象,在近年中国大陆历次强震中重现,说明在一定程度上具有共性与相对稳定性。 文中还提出了短临前兆的实质是在震源内、外力场复合作用下能量的传递、加速累积与预释放的观点。它能在时空域内统一地解释迄今为止所观测到的各种短临前兆现象。
Judgment of short-term precursory earthquake information is a difficult problem. The authors made a dynamic statistical analysis of a large number of data including topography, groundwater, water atmosphere, geomagnetism and macroscopically, as a “large system” of organic links in the focal zone, seismogenic zone and the surrounding structural networks, and found that some past New features of recognition. Thus, a set of dynamic group markers for judging short-range information is proposed, which include new types of precursors such as short and temporary trend precursors and extra-source mutation precursors in the source region, quasi-synchronization in precursor time, Epicenter migration, different types of spatio-temporal superposition, and other population characteristics, and the recovery ratio, range ratio, velocity ratio, migration velocity, time coefficient of variation, time magnitude equation and other statistical relationships. This set of signs, the group dynamic image, has been reproduced in all the recent earthquakes in mainland China in recent years, indicating that it has some commonalities and relative stability. In the paper, it is also proposed that the essence of short-term precursory precursor is the viewpoint of energy transfer, acceleration accumulation and pre-release under the combined effect of the source and the external force field. It provides a unified explanation of the various short-range precursors observed so far in the space-time domain.