本文针对飞行器健康管理系统故障预测部分,由于单一预测方法往往难于保证应用效果,本文提出基于GM(1,1)和指数平滑法的组合预测方法,采用拟合均方误差确定组合方法的加权系数,取两种方法预测值的加权值作为最终结果。以某航空设备为例,验证了该方法能提高预测系统的综合性能,弥补了单一方法的不足,具有良好的应用效果。 In this paper, aiming at the fault prediction of aircraft health management system, a single forecasting method is often difficult to guarantee the application effect. In this paper, a combined forecasting method based on GM (1,1) and exponential smoothing is proposed. The weighted mean square error , Take the weighted value of the two methods’ predictive value as the final result. Taking a certain aviation equipment as an example, it is verified that this method can improve the comprehensive performance of the forecasting system, make up for the deficiency of single method and has good application effect.