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中共中央在十六届四中全会通过的《关于加强党的执政能力的决议》中,明确提出了要“建立健全社会预警体系”的要求,并作为加强执政能力的重要举措之一。社会预警属于社会预测学的研究范畴,是社会科学中一个极具挑战性的研究领域,现在党中央提出这样一个新课题,有许多开创性的工作要做,但创新往往是和历史相联系的,我们只有弄清社会预警的来龙去脉,才能做到温故知新并推陈出新。为此,本文旨在对人类社会预警活动历史进行回顾总结,以期对我国社会预警体系的建立有所裨益。
In the “Resolution on Strengthening the Party’s Ability to Govern” adopted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, the CPC Central Committee has clearly put forward the requirement of “establishing and perfecting a social early warning system” and has taken it as one of the important measures to enhance its ability to govern. Social warning belongs to the category of social forecasting and is a challenging research field in social science. Now that the CPC Central Committee has proposed such a new task and many groundbreaking tasks, it is often linked with history Only when we can make clear the ins and outs of social warning can we make innovations and innovations. To this end, this article aims to review the history of early warning activities in human society, with a view to the establishment of social warning system in our country.