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本文对鲜水河地震带,松潘、龙门山地震带,使用M_s等于2.5～4.7级弱震资料,以不同的时间窗和滑动步长,计算“断层面总面积”,采用f_0与α两种预报评分方法讨论其预报效能。结果表明,选定6个月为时间窗,1个月为滑动步长,在这两个地区用“断层面总面积”预报未来半年是否可能发生5级以上地震,是与随机盲目预报有区别的。
In this paper, for the Xianshuihe seismic zone, Songpan and Longmenshan seismic zones, the “total area of fault plane” is calculated with different time windows and sliding steps using M_s equal to 2.5-4.7 magnitude of weak earthquakes, and two kinds of prediction of f_0 and α Scoring method to discuss its forecasting effectiveness. The results show that the selected 6 months as the time window and 1 month as the sliding step, and in these two areas, it is predicted that the earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above may occur in the next six months by using the “total area of fault plane”, which is different from the random blind forecast of.