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区域系统中港城互动关系具有系统动力学耦合特征,根据SD原理和方法,建立港口与城市耦合的PU-SD模型,解剖港城耦合系统多重反馈机理和各系统相互作用过程。以江苏省连云港为例,运用历史数据拟合,在证明模型具有可靠性和适用性基础上,通过变换经济社会资源等参数,以2008年为基年,对未来30年港城发展进行情景模拟,确定不同发展阶段的港城发展模式。结果表明模型参数变换后的港城耦合关系及变化呈现复杂性和时变性的特点,并符合港城发展周期理论。连云港市根据港城耦合机理及未来变化过程,采用不同调控策略,分阶段推进经济驱动型、资源驱动型和社会驱动型模式,可以实现港城协调发展的目标。
Based on the SD principle and method, a PU-SD model of port-city coupling is established, and the multiple feedback mechanism of the coupling system of port city and the interaction process of each system are dissected. Taking Lianyungang in Jiangsu Province as an example, using the historical data fitting, based on the demonstration of the reliability and applicability of the model, this paper makes a scenario simulation of the development of Hong Kong City in the next 30 years by transforming economic and social resources and other parameters, taking 2008 as the base year , To determine the different stages of development of Hong Kong City development model. The results show that the coupling relationship and the changes of the port city after the transformation of the model parameters show the characteristics of complexity and time variability, and are in line with the development cycle of the port city theory. Lianyungang City, according to the coupling mechanism of Hong Kong City and the future process of change, adopt different control strategies and promote economic-driven, resource-driven and social-driven modes in phases so as to achieve the goal of coordinated development of Hong Kong City.