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一、基本观点豆类价格自2014年5月底回落以来,已连续调整近两年时间,目前处于震荡筑底过程中。目前压制价格的主因仍是全球大豆供应充裕的大背景,不过我们换思路来考虑,目前已是全球大豆生产最为理想的状态,大豆主产国已连续三年丰收,这得益于理想天气的配合。当前的价格已完全体现了供需基本面的利空环境,如未来天气一旦出现问题,预期乐观的生产格局将受到影响,供需平衡将发生改变。目前美豆徘徊在850~900美分一线,也处于美国大豆种植成本附
First, the basic point of view Beans prices since the end of May 2014 down, has been continuously adjusted for nearly two years, the current turmoil in the bottoming process. The main reason for the current suppression of the price is still ample background for the global soybean supply, but we have to think about it and have now been the most ideal soybean production in the world. The main soybean producing country has harvested for three consecutive years, thanks to the ideal weather Cooperation. The current price has fully embodied the bad environment of supply and demand fundamentals. If there is any problem in the future weather, the optimistic production pattern is expected to be affected and the balance between supply and demand will change. The current US soybean hovering at 850-900 cents first-line, but also in the United States soybean planting costs attached