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分析气候变暖对黄土高原塬区作物发育期的影响表明:气候变暖使冬小麦越冬前各发育期日期推后,越冬后各发育期日期提前;冬小麦全生育期生长天数缩短,每10年缩短8.3天,主要是越冬期(休眠期)缩短,每10年缩短6.8天;冬小麦越冬死亡率降低。使玉米各发育期日期提前,但播种期、三叶期、拔节期、抽雄期日期提前较小,其变化速率仅为0.5天~1.1天/10年;而乳熟期、成熟期日期提前较多,变化速率为3.5天~9.0天/10年。冬小麦、玉米气候产量变化与干旱发生程度有关,干旱越严重,气候产量越低。年气候生产力40年(1961年~2000年)呈递减趋势,递减率为1.13kg~19.21kg/(hm2.年),从对未来假定的气候变化年型看,以暖湿型气候年型对农业生产最为有利,年气候生产力增加13.7%~31.2%;冷干型气候对农业生产不利,年气候生产力减少5.1%~27.1%。
The analysis of the effects of climate warming on the crop development in the highland of the Loess Plateau showed that: the climate warming led to the early development of the winter wheat before each winter, and the earlier the developmental period of winter wheat was earlier; 8.3 days, mainly the wintering period (dormant period) shortened, shortened 6.8 days every 10 years; winter wheat overwintering mortality decreased. However, the dates of sowing, cloverleaf, jointing and tasseling stages are earlier than others, and the rate of change is only 0.5-1.1days / 10years. However, the dates of milk ripening and maturity are ahead of time More, the rate of change of 3.5 days to 9.0 days / 10 years. Changes in winter wheat and maize climatic output are related to the degree of drought. The more severe the drought is, the lower the climate is. Annual productivity of 40 years (1961 ~ 2000) showed a decreasing trend, the rate of decline was 1.13kg ~ 19.21kg / (hm2. Year), from the assumed climate change in the future year type, with warm and humid climatic type pairs Agricultural production is the most favorable, with an annual increase of 13.7% to 31.2% in climatic productivity; cold and dry climate is unfavorable to agricultural production, and annual climatic productivity is reduced by 5.1% to 27.1%.