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本文运用Moran指数测度了苹果、柑橘和香蕉价格地区间的空间相关性,在此基础上构建了空间面板计量模型,实证研究了地区间苹果、柑橘和香蕉价格的形成及空间传导。结果表明,我国苹果、柑橘和香蕉价格呈现明显的空间相关性,国内这三种水果市场趋于整合;地区产量、销售成本、人均收入水平、城镇化率及替代品价格是影响三种水果价格形成的重要因素;苹果、香蕉和柑橘的地理空间系数分别高达0.91、0.91和0.69,经济水平空间系数分别为0.86、0.51和0.62,对外贸易水平空间系数分别为0.13、0.64和0.42,苹果、香蕉的市场保护水平空间系数分别为0.35和0.36,说明地理距离、市场保护程度差异、对外开放程度差异及经济发展水平差异是三种水果价格空间传导的制约因素。
In this paper, the Moran index is used to measure the spatial correlation of apple, citrus and banana prices. On this basis, a spatial panel measurement model is constructed to empirically study the formation and spatial transmission of the price of apple, citrus and banana in the region. The results showed that the prices of apples, tangerines and bananas in China showed obvious spatial correlation, and the domestic three kinds of fruit markets tended to integrate. The output of the three regions, the cost of sales, the per capita income level, the rate of urbanization and the price of alternatives affected the prices of three kinds of fruits The spatial coefficients of economic level were 0.86,0.51 and 0.62 respectively, and the spatial coefficients of foreign trade level were 0.13, 0.64 and 0.42 respectively. Apples, bananas and citrus had the highest spatial-temporal coefficients of 0.91, 0.91 and 0.69, Of the market protection level spatial coefficient were 0.35 and 0.36, indicating that geographical distance, market protection, the difference between the degree of opening up and the level of economic development differences in the three space constraints is the conduction of the price of fruit.