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加工贸易是中国参与国际分工,承接国际产业转移,推进工业化发展,提高就业的重要形式。本研究基于1990-2011年的数据,运用向量误差修正模型,实证分析了山东省加工贸易对产业结构升级的影响。研究结果表明,加工贸易与产业结构升级存在长期均衡关系;加工贸易出口短期内对产业结构升级作用不大,长期具有一定的促进作用;加工贸易进口短期内对产业结构升级有促进作用,长期有抑制作用;加工贸易出口产品结构短期内对产业结构升级具有抑制作用,长期具有较强的促进作用。
Processing trade is an important form by which China participates in international division of labor, undertakes international industrial transfer, advances industrialization and enhances employment. Based on the data of 1990-2011, this study uses the vector error correction model to empirically analyze the impact of processing trade on the upgrading of industrial structure in Shandong Province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the processing trade and the upgrading of the industrial structure; the export of processing trade has little effect on upgrading the industrial structure in the short term and has a certain promotion effect for a long time; the import of processing trade can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in the short term Inhibition; processing trade export product structure in the short term to inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure, long-term has a strong role in promoting.