论文部分内容阅读
根据北京市道路交通事故的统计资料,以交通事故致死率为指标,对北京市目前道路交通安全情况进行评价.并基于灰色预测理论,建立北京市道路交通事故死亡人数的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型.预测结果显示,北京市未来几年道路交通事故死亡人数虽处于下降趋势,但死亡人数仍在千人左右,平均每起事故死亡人数仍处于上升趋势,道路交通事故致死率仍然偏高.道路交通管理部门应加大惩治道路交通违法行为力度,以控制道路交通事故的严重后果.
Based on the statistical data of road traffic accidents in Beijing and the fatality rate of traffic accidents as an index, the current situation of road traffic safety in Beijing is evaluated, and based on the gray prediction theory, the gray GM (1,1 ) Forecasting model.The forecast result shows that although the death toll of road traffic accidents in Beijing in the coming years is on a declining trend, the death toll is still around 1000, and the average number of deaths per accident is still on the rise. The death toll from road accidents is still at a low level High.Road traffic management department should increase efforts to punish illegal traffic offenses in order to control the serious consequences of road traffic accidents.