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运用1978-2012年我国城镇居民收入消费数据建立变参数模型,发现边际消费倾向呈抛物线下降趋势。从历史沿革角度出发,分析经济转型中三个时期各自的消费特征,发现转型中存在的诸多不确定性,是低消费、高储蓄形成的重要原因。而后从预期角度出发,采用调整离差率和条件方差分别测定预期收入和支出不确定性,发现制度改革所带来的预期收入和支出不确定性均会阻碍居民消费水平的提高。
Using the data of urban residents’ income consumption in 1978-2012 to establish a variable parameter model, we find that the marginal propensity to consume shows a downward trend of parabola. From the perspective of historical evolution, we analyze the respective consumption characteristics in the three periods of economic transition and find that the many uncertainties in the transition are the important reasons for the formation of low consumption and high savings. Then from the perspective of expectation, we adjust the deviation rate and conditional variance to determine the expected income and expenditure uncertainty, respectively, and find that the expected income and expenditure uncertainty brought by the system reform will hinder the improvement of residents’ consumption level.