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文章基于中国台湾1970~2014年的人口数据,运用理论男婴富余比与婚配性别比法,测算台湾地区婚姻挤压的变化趋势。研究发现,1970~2014年台湾地区的婚配性别比MR值逐年增大,同时,理论男婴富余比呈小幅度上升的走势,表明未来台湾地区的男性婚姻挤压也呈上升趋势。中国台湾与大陆的比较分析表明,1987~2013年台湾地区的理论男婴富余比小于大陆值,但婚配性别比MR值高于大陆值。文章利用台湾地区和大陆历年的出生性别比,检验宏观人口因素对未来初婚市场婚姻挤压的影响,发现婚姻匹配是个体主观偏好和客观婚姻市场共同作用的结果;宏观的性别和年龄结构是影响婚姻挤压的前置因素,个体的家庭与社会文化背景、经济基础、工作情况等社会资本才是影响婚姻挤压的根本原因。
Based on the population data from 1970 to 2014 in Taiwan of China, this paper estimates the changing trend of marriage squeeze in Taiwan by using the theory of the ratio of surplus of baby boy and the ratio of marriage to sex. The study found that from 1970 to 2014 Taiwan’s mate sex ratio increased year by year MR value, while the trend of a small increase in the theoretical percentage of baby boy shows that the future of male marriage in Taiwan is also on the rise. The comparative analysis of Taiwan and Mainland China shows that the theoretical surplus rate of baby boy in Taiwan from 1987 to 2013 was less than that of the mainland, but the MR value of marriage-to-sex ratio was higher than that of the mainland. The article uses the sex ratio of births in Taiwan and mainland China over the years to test the impact of macro-population factors on the marriage squeeze in the market of the first marriage in the future. It is found that the marriage match is the result of the subjective preference and the objective marriage market. The macro-gender and age structure influence The pre-marital squeeze factors, individual family and social and cultural background, economic base, working conditions and other social capital is the fundamental reason for the impact of the squeeze on marriage.