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在总结国外概率风险评价技术在载人航天领域的工程实践基础上,剖析了该技术在载人航天的范围、对象、实施条件等工程适用性问题。结合我国空间站工程空间应用系统有效载荷产品的特点和空间科学与应用实验任务需求,对概率风险评价技术在空间应用系统中的应用前景进行初步分析,提出了该技术在空间应用系统中推广应用的实施策略和实施流程,并以高微重力科学实验过程为例进行了建模示例,探讨了其工程应用的可行性,为后续开展空间科学与应用实验过程的安全性定量风险评价工作提供了参考。
On the basis of summarizing the engineering practice of the overseas probabilistic risk assessment technology in the field of manned spacecraft, this paper analyzes the project applicability of the technology in the area, object and implementation conditions of manned spacecraft. Combined with the characteristics of payload products of space application system of China’s space station engineering and the requirements of space science and application experiment tasks, the application prospect of probability risk assessment technology in space application system is analyzed preliminarily. The application of this technology in space application system is proposed Implementation strategy and implementation process. Taking the example of high microgravity scientific experiment as an example, the modeling examples are discussed. The feasibility of its application in engineering is discussed. It provides a reference for the follow-up safety quantitative risk assessment of space science and applied experimental process .