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境外投资风险因素可以分为5个类别:政治风险、经营风险、文化风险、法律风险和自然风险。在此分类的基础上,通过全概率方法定义海外直接投资风险预警指标及预警的显著性水平,本文利用该指标对海外直接投资数据进行修正。统计数据表明:中国海外直接投资面临的风险仍在可控范围之内;修正后的中国海外直接投资和海外股票投资之间具有二次曲线关系。
Foreign investment risk factors can be divided into five categories: political risk, business risk, cultural risk, legal risk and natural risk. Based on this classification, we define the level of the risk warning index and the warning level of overseas direct investment by the method of total probability. In this paper, we use this indicator to correct the data of overseas direct investment. Statistics show that the risks facing China’s overseas direct investment are still under control. The revised China’s overseas direct investment has a quadratic curve relationship with overseas stock investment.