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突破人力资本与经济增长线性关联假设,选取我国31个省(区、市)1997—2013年数据,构建门槛回归模型,检验人力资本对经济增长的门槛效应。实证结果表明,教育人力资本对经济增长产生显著双重门槛效应,两个门槛值分别为8.53和9.47,且省级区域间存在明显差距。物质资本、劳动力数量和健康人力资本对经济增长产生积极促进效应。这要求我国需高度重视人力资本发展,调动其积极性,努力提高水平,推动人力资本迈过第二门槛值,促进其效用最大化。并且要注重地区差异性,从全局视角制定并出台适合各地区发展实际的公共政策,最终实现经济高质量的增长。
Breakthrough the hypothesis of linear correlation between human capital and economic growth, select the data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in our country from 1997 to 2013 to construct the threshold regression model to test the threshold effect of human capital on economic growth. Empirical results show that education human capital has a significant double threshold effect on economic growth, with the two thresholds of 8.53 and 9.47 respectively, and there is a clear gap between the provincial regions. Material capital, labor force and healthy human capital have a positive effect on economic growth. This requires that our country should attach great importance to the development of human capital, mobilize its enthusiasm, strive to raise the level of human capital to promote the second threshold, to promote its effectiveness. And we must pay attention to regional differences, draw up and promulgate public policies suitable for the actual development of various regions from a global perspective, and ultimately achieve high-quality economic growth.